OUR PHILOSOPHY

Despite the scientific underpinnings, we believe that the investment discipline that we provide is not rocket science. Many of our clients have the intellectual ability to practice it without us. Yet our investment services are valuable to them because we take the emotions out of their decisions, we help to better manage human investor behavior that is the root cause of underperformance.

We believe that “Free Markets Work”. Markets are moved by news. News is unpredictable and random by definition. Therefore, the markets movement is unpredictable and random. However, this market randomness does have a positive average of about 10% per year because capitalism works¹. Active managers who have claimed to outperform a market average or index have also implied that they have the power to predict tomorrow’s news. But since it is impossible to consistently predict the future, the results of active managers are unpredictable, random, and often below market.

The average actively managed investment typically under performs the indexed investment, when all costs are deducted¹. Those actively managed investments that beat the indexed investments fail to consistently and predictably beat the index in the future. The reason for market beating performance in a random market is simply due to luck and not due to a skill that is repeatable. Research shows that less than 3% of active managers beat an appropriate index over a 10 year or longer period. Needless to say, it is nearly impossible to predict those winners in advance. Lucky investors are well advised not to expect a continuation of their good fortune.

Actively managing your money can expose your portfolio to higher risk and lower returns, compared to a globally diversified, prudent portfolio of index funds. This is due to commissions, higher management fees, margin costs, taxes, stock randomness, and market efficiencies. Active money management can be hazardous to your wealth.